Thursday, September 17, 2009

Forecast outlook for Thursday

The weather pattern we have dealt with for most of this week looks to continue a couple more days, though the rain chances don't stop until we get well into next week. Yesterday it appeared there would be a fairly significant cold front that would move through on Monday or Tuesday and dry out the region and bring cooler temps. As we head towards fall though, I am reminded just how poorly the computer models can handle the onset of big pattern swings farther than 3-4 days out. I now have seen 3 consecutive model runs from the GFS indicating that that front will NOT make it in here early next week and instead of cooler, drier weather, we could see warmer (mid 80s) weather with above normal humidity and continued chances of rain well into next week. We'll have to see how it all plays out, but for now keep those umbrellas handy.

The good news is that the Flash Flood Watch is set to expire at 7pm tonight, so the chances of very heavy rain will go down. Most rain over the next several days will fall during the daylight hours, with clouds, patchy fog, and maybe drizzle or light showers at night.

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