Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Possible severe weather Thursday PM

The spring pattern has definitely set in and the Mid-South is once again under the gun for potential severe weather. While things didn't pan out as expected last Friday due to a fairly complicated system that the models had a difficult time forecasting, this one brings some of the same uncertainty. Once again, the potential definitely exists though, and I think our chances for strong storms are higher this time around.
Above are the graphics from the Storm Prediction Center showing the metro area is again on the edge of a MODERATE RISK forecast. The probability outlook (second image) indicates a 45% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any one point, while the hatches area indicates a 10% or better chance of significant severe weather within 25 miles of any point.
The scenario is once again for a low pressure system to cross very near the metro area, with a possible track near the I-40 corridor. As the low and it's attendant cold front approach tomorrow afternoon, we will have one thing on the side of severe weather that we didn't have Friday night and that's better timing - during the warmest part of the day. The most likely type of severe weather will be a squall line, or mesoscale convective system (MCS), along the cold front producing high wind and large hail. Supercells could be embedded within this line and those could produce larger hail and possible tornadoes. The best guess at timing for this event right now would be between 1:00-7:00pm.
A couple of quiet days are expected after this event before yet another system containing thunderstorms moves in Sunday. More on this one once we get past tomorrow... Stay with and this blog for the latest.

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